Hello, Petrolheads!
Tonight’s
post addresses another question we, Petrolheads, are facing more and more
often: how will we manage to enjoy our passion in the future? The horizon ahead
lies full of, apparently, insuperable obstacles and challenges for people like
you and me, true car lovers. Whether we’re speaking of Autonomous Driving, the
SUV Trend or emissions legislation which will, undoubtedly, drive towards the
demise of the mass-produced Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), it looks like
threats are coming from all over the place.
Personally,
I couldn’t be any less worried!
Autonomous Drive
One
of the “threats” most people talk about are Automobiles capable of driving
themselves. It’s actually one of the things I’m more looking forward to, in the
mid-term. Why?
Humans
are a complex system full of variables, designed – with aplomb – to be adaptable;
these adaptation capabilities bring us versatility, and are the main reason for
our success. We can adapt ourselves to live in the tropics or close to the poles,
to live in congested cities or in the desert. In other words, the fact that I
like whine but you prefer beer, your neighbour
really loves sailing but his mother is way more interested in Design
means that our internal “programming “ allows us to excel in one particular
area, in which we effortlessly move with more success than the others.
One
of those areas is driving. By far and away, most people drive because they need
to. What that means is that, most of them, don’t drive that well. I hate
cooking, so I can’t ever be competent preparing a great meal. I won’t starve,
sure, but it really is a matter of doing it “just well enough”. Autonomous
Drive could take a lot of uninterested people from behind the steering wheel.
People who spend their drives chatting on their smartphones, or thinking about
where to go shopping later on, who sometimes suddenly swerve to avoid the kerb
because they’re more interested in other things than driving. But not just
these. Let’s face it, for most of us living in cities, the commute from and,
especially, to work, is a bloody pain in the ass. There are the traffic jams,
noise, cold, minutes after one has woken up. That means we aren’t driving as focused
as we should, and nobody can remotely have any driving pleasure on such circumstances.
I would gladly give this daily task to a computer. The same reason why most
people – myself included – drive their cars with their sequential gearboxes in
“D” in the city. You’re not losing any fahrspass,
but instead saving on effort.
Autonomous
Drive would, then, make driving in the city a safer, relaxed task, while
freeing the open roads to those who really want to drive, and consequently do
it well, without the uninterested ones interfering.
Electricity-powered
Vehicles
Another
area to which I’m looking forward to. Electric engines are a thing of wonder:
they are compact, quiet, massively reliable, way cheaper to produce and
maintain than ICEs, offer a linear and instant power delivery and don’t emit
pollution locally. The issue here is the source of electricity; as long as this
subject is cleared – I bet on some inexpensive Fuel-cell concept to be
discovered – the road is clear.
Mass-produced
ICEs, on the other hand, are getting less and less interesting for real
drivers. Downsizing isn’t the main problem – the Smart Roadster’s 698cc
3-cylinder engine is living proof that small can also be epic – but , because
they are more and more focused on economy and emissions, throttle response,
feel and sound are suffering. Badly. To try and compensate this last one there
are the, now widespread, sound generators – the radio plays synthetic engine
sound, to make the experience sound more exciting – on most sportier cars, from
BMW’s M models to Maserati’s Diesels. And maintenance costs are going sharply up
in time, thanks to ever more complex (and with a short lifespan) exhaust
after-treatment systems…
Nowadays,
though, Electric Vehicles just aren’t the answer. Particularly for long
journeys, the current prospect of very heavy, expensive and short-lived – yes,
realistically, expect current Li-ion Batteries to last some 5 to 8 years,
depending on use – battery packs makes very limited sense, even before
mentioning range. You see, most of the energy we consume domestically comes
from non-renewable sources, such as – wait for it – coal, even on year 2016.
Then there are network losses and battery losses, particularly in cold
weathers, meaning a lot of natural resources were consumed and emissions made
somewhere to effectively power the electric car. And, in many countries, the
electric grid is already under strain, such as in England.
Petrol end
As
we all know, oil is not going to last forever, at least not with accessible
prices. As reserves become more and more depleted, investment costs for new oil
wells exploration soar (the still unexplored wells are, obviously, harder to
access than the current ones) and demand falls, the future tendency for oil
barrels and, consequently, petrol prices is only one: to rise sharply.
Personally, I view this as the most serious – only? – problem in the horizon.
I
believe petrol isn’t going to become unaffordable within the next 20 years or
so; even so, legislation may prove me wrong, in the sense that, if
mass-produced ICE’s are forcedly phased out way earlier than that – VW’s
“Dieselgate” is certainly helping this cause – fewer people would need petrol
and, consequently, prices would soar. Pure offer-and-demand economics.
Beyond
this transition period, when oil becomes too expensive for private
transportation, I believe Synthetic Fuels of some sort will be developed to
power classic ICE’d cars. They will never be as cheap or practical to get hold
of as currently petrol is, but for recreational use, it will be just fine.
Conclusion
The
world is changing at light speed, and we have to make the most out of that. The
Internet- and Digital-Era are – fortunately, I believe – here to stay, and even
if with some missteps along the way, will bring us better life standards.
As
for today’s nice classics and recent, future classics powered by an exciting
ICE, my dear Petrolheads, fear not: just as with horses nowadays, they will
become a hobby. The higher costs associated will also bring in a factor of
exclusivity and, consequently, sense of occasion. That’s when our love for
cars, driving or both will reach its climax!
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